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Ukraine's barley exports in 2024/25 fell 12% to 2.18 million tonnes, the lowest since 2012/13. Early 2025/26 yields are low in the south, and analysts have cut their harvest estimates.
Import demand, particularly from China, will determine how the next three months unfold.
Lower Ukrainian supply and reduced harvest forecasts support export prices, and China's buying pace will be the main factor for Black Sea barley values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.