
Analysts expect world barley ending stocks to fall to 42-year lows in 2025-26, with Canadian ending stocks near the second-lowest level in 65 years. Barley prices have drifted lower for six weeks as corn prospects improved.
The article warns that the market is complacent and that pollination problems could cut the US corn crop.
Very low global and Canadian carryouts leave barley vulnerable to a sharp rally if weather or corn shortfalls arise, even though current prices are soft.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.