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Canadian canola was not targeted by Trump's latest tariff threat, which would raise tariffs to 35% on Canadian goods not covered by USMCA from August 1. Producers still face uncertainty from the US trade dispute, Chinese tariffs on canola products, and poor growing conditions in parts of Alberta.
Trade uncertainty and Chinese tariffs keep canola export flows constrained, supporting Canadian canola meal weakness while weather issues add supply risk.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.