
Soybean futures rallied about 80 cents in August after an unexpectedly bearish-for-supply USDA August report cut planted acres to 80.9 million, while raising yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Production is now projected at 4.292 billion bushels.
The analysis questions whether the rally can hold given record Brazilian crops and no Chinese buying.
Tighter U.S. supply supported prices, but record South American output and the lack of Chinese demand could cap further gains. Market direction depends on whether the U.S. export outlook improves.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.