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Oil World cut its 2025/26 global sunflower seed forecast by 700,000 t to 58.7 million t, still 3.6 million t above 2024/25. The downgrade reflects drought in Ukraine and the EU, including France, Bulgaria and Romania.
Gains in Kazakhstan and Argentina partly offset the losses.
Lower drought-hit EU and Ukrainian output tightens sunflower oil and meal supplies, supporting prices. Strong Argentine crushing and larger Russian volumes limit how far prices can rise.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.