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An Oklahoma State University analysis argues that wheat prices should rise if USDA's projected 2025-26 hard red winter wheat exports are accurate. Cash wheat in Pond Creek was $4.45, down $1 from a year earlier, and 2026 forward contracts were about $5.
The lower basis is attributed to the record corn crop.
Projected HRW export growth could tighten US supplies and support futures, but current cash and forward prices remain well below last year. Feed buyers face a weaker wheat-to-corn price relationship for now.
farmprogress.comKim AndersonSep 23, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
