
Southeastern Minnesota's Oat Mafia collective, which planted 6,000 acres of oats, is holding about 600,000 bushels after La Crosse Milling could not take the full harvest. The next-best buyer would pay 50 cents per bushel less.
Farmers are also holding soybeans while waiting for better prices amid tariff-related China buying disruptions.
Without a consistent buyer, unsold oat supply stays in bins and the alternative bid is 50 cents lower, which weighs on local oat values and may reduce acreage next season.
After 17 past bearish trade events, Oats moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (71% higher; middle half -4.2% to +5.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.