
A USDA FAS report from September 22, 2025 forecasts Mexico's 2025-26 corn production at 25 million tonnes, up 8%, with corn imports steady at 25 million tonnes. Wheat production is projected to fall 34%, and wheat, rice and sorghum imports are forecast to rise.
Lower Mexican wheat output raises import demand for wheat, which supports wheat prices. Stable corn imports keep US corn demand from Mexico roughly unchanged.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.