
Bayer's market analysis says Canada's 2025 canola crop should be average to above average, but China's tariffs are hurting prices and marketing. Global canola flows will reshuffle as China sources from Ukraine, Russia and Australia.
The analyst notes lessons from the 2019 tariff episode suggest markets can be found over time.
Canadian export flows are being redirected to other origins, which pressures Canadian canola prices while the global market adjusts. China still needs imports, so demand does not disappear entirely.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.