
Western Canadian farmers are storing canola seed on farms in expectation that the China trade dispute will be resolved, with stored volumes likely exceeding 19 million tonnes. China imported 5.8 million tonnes of seed in 2024 and the August tariffs wiped out about $1 billion in sector value.
Storage risks spoilage and possible further price declines.
Large unsold canola stocks on farms create overhang that pressures cash prices and basis, while any resolution with China could release demand and lift values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.