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Oil futures settled more than 1% higher in the prior session after OPEC+ agreed to add 137,000 bpd from November. The move was smaller than market expectations, and ING analysts said the group remains cautious given forecasts of a global supply surplus.
Prices were supported by the smaller-than-expected hike, but expectations of a fourth-quarter and 2026 surplus cap gains. Crude direction will hinge on whether the surplus forecasts hold.
reuters.comGeorgina MccartneyOct 7, 2025After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
