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The US agreed to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash producers after talks between Trump's envoy and Lukashenko, who released 123 political prisoners. Global potash producers' shares barely moved on the news.
EU sanctions remain, and Belarus still depends on Russian Baltic ports and rail to China.
Belarus's potash exports stay constrained by EU sanctions and logistics, so the US move is unlikely to add meaningful supply or lower potash prices in the near term.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.