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An Angus Policy Matters column explains that U.S. cattle supplies hit a 74-year low on Jan. 1, 2025.
It ties this to drought, high costs and the closure of the Mexican feeder cattle border over New World screwworm. The administration has promised a plan to rebuild the cattle herd.
A possible herd-rebuilding incentive could eventually add supply, but the border closure keeps feeder supply tight in the near term, supporting cattle prices.
angus.orgJan 1, 2026After 17 past bullish policy events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.9%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 10 past bullish policy events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
