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The USDA's Office of the Chief Economist raised its projected 2025/26 US corn exports to a record 3.3 billion bushels, 30% above last year's record. Projected ending stocks are 2.127 billion bushels, and the farm price forecast is steady at slightly above $4.00 per bushel.
Record exports and strong ethanol grind support demand, but ending stocks at a level not seen since 2019 cap upside for corn prices.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.