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CBOT rough rice futures rose about 2-3% at the end of March, with the May 2026 contract near 11.41 USD/cwt and open interest above 11,000 contracts. Indian and Vietnamese FOB export offers slipped roughly 2-4% over three weeks in EUR terms.
Futures strength is driven by speculative interest and spillover from firmer grains, while physical Asian prices are softening on weaker demand and currency moves. The split suggests mixed near-term direction for US rice values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.