
The farmdoc daily analysis estimates profitability of a representative Iowa 100-million-gallon dry-mill ethanol plant for calendar 2025, testing whether the industry extended its run of five straight years of positive profits. The model uses standard cost and financing assumptions.
Healthy ethanol margins support sustained plant run rates and corn grind, which underpins demand for corn and DDGS feed co-products.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.