
ABARES's March Crop Report showed a soft finish to the harvest, with Victorian yields up five per cent and national wheat at 35.585 million tonnes. Barley reached a record 16.3 million tonnes and canola about 7.69 million tonnes.
Upward yield revisions add modestly to Australian grain export supply, reinforcing bearish pressure on wheat and barley prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.