
Sterling traded flat near 1.3475-1.3480 against the dollar ahead of the BoE decision and the US PCE inflation release. Markets priced a greater chance of two BoE hikes in 2026.
The Fed's hawkish tilt and the US-Iran stalemate were supporting the dollar.
Pre-event positioning in GBP/USD shows the dollar is being supported by Fed hawkishness and Middle East risk. Stronger dollar conditions can pressure dollar-priced grain and feed ingredient values for non-US buyers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.