Rice futures fell to near $10.60/cwt, the lowest since early March, after the International Grains Council estimated record 2026-27 global output of 548 million tonnes. Indonesia's rice reserves reached a record 5.0 million tons, while Hormuz-related fuel and fertilizer costs are pressuring Southeast Asian planting.
Record global supply and Indonesian stocks weigh on near-term prices, though rising input costs and a weak Indian monsoon could tighten supply later.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.