
USDA's April rice outlook raised the 2025/26 US all-rice ending stocks projection by 5 million cwt to 55.3 million, the highest since 1985/86, on lower long-grain exports and domestic use. The March Prospective Plantings report showed US rice growers intend to plant 2.319 million acres in 2026, about 18% fewer than 2025, with long-grain acreage down 22%.
Heavier US carryout points to ample domestic supply and softer rough rice values, though the sharp acreage cut for 2026 is a bullish offset for later-crop prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.