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The US State Department sent a non-paper to Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine asking them to allow transit of Belarusian potash through their territories. The document cites the lifting of US sanctions on Belaruskali and says the aim is to ease global potash shortages.
Transit through EU or Ukrainian routes would add Belarusian supply and cut freight costs. That would weigh on potash prices if it proceeds.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.