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ING expects tepid Q1 Canadian GDP of about 1.5% annualized and says the release is unlikely to move the loonie unless it substantially beats or misses consensus. ING sees USD/CAD near 1.37 by end-June, with trade-policy risk from USMCA renegotiation keeping a risk premium in the currency.
The currency view centres on rate differentials and USMCA risk rather than the GDP print, so limited near-term impact on Canadian oilseed or grain prices is expected.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.