
USDA's Grain Transportation Report shows ocean freight rates from the US Gulf and Pacific Northwest to Japan reached their highest in nearly four years in the week ended May 14. Gulf-to-Japan rose to $72 per tonne and PNW-to-Japan to $37.25, up 44% and 41% year to date.
Bunker fuel costs remain elevated, with VLSFO at $919 per tonne as of May 15.
Higher ocean freight raises the landed and FOB costs of grain and meal exports, narrowing US export margins and pressuring US basis while supporting competing origins. Elevated bunker costs add to the upward pressure.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 36 past logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -4.6% to +3.2%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.