Iran's war and attacks on Gulf energy producers have halted about 20% of global LNG supply, including damage to Qatari facilities. US Henry Hub gas fell to a 17-month low near $2.52/mmBtu because pipelines are full and LNG export plants are at capacity, while Europe and Asia prices soared.
US gas is cut off from overseas buyers by export capacity limits, so global LNG tightness does not transmit to domestic US gas prices. Feed buyers face little direct corn or meal impact, but elevated energy costs in import markets matter for fertilizer and freight.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.