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Hog futures indicate carcass prices will only rally to about $100/cwt by July-August, below earlier expectations of $100-plus summer prices. No 2026 contracts closed above $100.50 on the prior Friday.
USDA forecasts 2026 liveweight hog prices at $68.38/cwt.
Lower summer hog price expectations reduce producer margins and could trim hog herd expansion and feed demand later in the year.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.