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The FAO's May 2026 Agrifood Policy Highlights report that about 37 percent of recorded policy actions in April 2026 responded to the Middle East conflict. It describes governments shifting toward reactive and proactive measures to cushion fertilizer supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Government export controls and input subsidies on fertilizers can tighten global supply and keep prices elevated, which raises production costs for feed grains and oilseeds.
fao.orgMay 18, 2026After 199 past policy events, Urea moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past policy events, DAP moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.6% to +1.3%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
