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The International Cotton Advisory Committee projects global cotton output down 2% to 25.7 million tons for 2026/27, with acreage down 1%. Drivers include a 12% rise in fertilizer prices, Strait of Hormuz disruption, El Niño droughts and competition from corn, with declines in China, Australia and Brazil offset by a rise in India.
A smaller world cotton crop reduces cottonseed meal availability, which modestly supports meal prices as higher input costs also constrain planting.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.