
Gold futures edged up before reversing to close lower after the Fed held rates and its dot plot showed nine of 19 policymakers expecting a hike this year. Warsh said policy was restrictive only in housing, which analysts read as readiness to tighten.
The dollar climbed on the reaction.
The more hawkish dot plot lifted the dollar, which can weigh on dollar-priced commodities and raise import costs for foreign feed buyers. The effect is driven by rate expectations rather than crop fundamentals.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.