
MUFG said sterling has been the strongest G10 currency after the US dollar since the Middle East conflict began in late February. It expects the Bank of England to hold rates but sees inflation and energy risks keeping hike pricing intact.
A September hike was priced at a little over 50%, with a hike fully priced by November.
This is a pre-meeting currency and rate outlook with no direct grain or oilseed supply effect. Energy-driven inflation pressure links it to the broader oil shock, which matters for input costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.