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Indonesia recorded a record current-account deficit of US$12.5 billion in Q2 2026, driven by higher oil import costs after the Iran war began. The non-oil trade surplus is narrowing, reducing a key cushion for the rupiah.
Dependence on imported energy makes the rupiah vulnerable to any further oil price spike, which would weaken the currency and raise feed import costs. The shrinking trade surplus removes an important buffer.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.