
The Vietnam Food Association estimates 5.726 million tonnes of rice exported through August 15, with 2026 volume projected at about 7.738 million tonnes and value at $3.94 billion. July export prices were 5.8% above a year earlier, and the Philippines plans to keep importing.
Recovering Vietnamese export prices and steady Philippine import demand support the rice market into year-end, although the full-year value is still below 2025.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.