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USDA's weekly Dairy Market News review for August 17–21 showed CME NDM rallying to $1.80/lb while butter and block cheese softened. The September Class I base price fell to $17.04/cwt.
Stronger powder prices contrast with weaker fat and cheese, so the milk price impact is mixed. The lower Class I base points to softer near-term milk values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.