
AHDB's second update shows UK harvest yields continuing to disappoint after limited rainfall since spring. Average winter wheat yields are 6.7 t/ha, winter barley 6.8 t/ha, and oats 4.2 t/ha, with only winter oilseed rape beating its 2025 average and wet weather slowing progress in Scotland and northern England.
Lower UK cereal output modestly reduces domestic supply and raises import needs for feed barley and wheat, a small upward pressure on barley and wheat prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.