Seven OPEC+ countries met virtually on August 2, 2026 and agreed to a 188,000 barrel per day production target increase for September. The breakdown was 62,000 bpd each from Saudi Arabia and Russia, with smaller increases from Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
The country-level increases add to nominal OPEC+ supply, which is bearish for crude. Because the same increments were announced monthly, the market reaction is expected to be small.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.