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Trump said a large potash deal with Belarus was under discussion, which would provide cheaper supply than Canada. Analysis notes the US imported 79% of its potash from Canada in 2021–2024 and that Belarus has little free capacity to redirect volumes away from China.
Doubts about Belarus's ability to supply the US limit the likelihood of lower potash prices, so the market impact on feed-related fertilizer costs is expected to be small.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.