The Canadian dollar firmed modestly on Sept 30 after US PCE inflation came in softer than expected, at 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annual for August. Markets scaled back bets on an October Fed hike, and Brent traded around $103.45 a barrel.
Softer inflation reduces the chance of further dollar strength, which can ease pressure on USD-priced feed imports. Firm crude supports Canadian export income but does not change the feed balance directly.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.