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Arkansas farmers had harvested 67% of the rice crop by September 13, well above the 47% five-year average. Local cash basis sank to about $1.00/cwt under futures, while November futures stalled near $16 after a six-week rally.
The deep cash discount transfers margin to mills and pressures grower cash prices, while futures resistance near $16 limits upside until the larger ending-stocks projection is absorbed.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.