
Avian influenza has returned to northern US states since late August, with over 600,000 commercial turkeys affected in five weeks, plus outbreaks in South Dakota, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Industry sources say the disease is entrenched in wild birds and the fall migration risk is rising.
Losses in turkey and layer flocks reduce demand for feed ingredients in affected operations, though the effect on prices is modest at current scale. Renewed outbreaks also raise the risk of egg supply swings later in the year.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.