
US grain exports to Mexico rose from 7.6% of the market in 2022 to 9.3% in 2024. Handysize (51.6%) and Supramax (39.4%) vessels account for over 90% of shipments to Mexico.
A thaw in US-China relations could redirect some volumes back toward China and shift demand toward larger Panamax vessels.
Steady Mexican demand supports Handysize and Supramax freight volumes, while a China revival would lift total export demand but change the vessel mix. Shifts in destination change which freight segments gain or lose.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.