Researchers at the University of Memphis argue that record low Mississippi River levels in 2022 stopped barges near Memphis in October and required dredging and reservoir releases. Early winter rains were easing conditions on the lower river.
The authors say climate-driven swings between extreme lows and highs will make river transport more prone to backups.
Expected greater volatility in river levels implies recurring freight spikes and higher bulk transport costs for grain and feed ingredients. This raises the risk premium on barge-dependent shipping routes.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.