Barge rates on the Mississippi slipped to 549 from 556 in the USDA weekly report, but remained well above the 466 level of September 20. Water levels showed no sign of recovery, though the Corps of Engineers has dredged and barge companies have imposed load restrictions.
Current rates are about 52 percent of last year's first-week-of-October level of 1,045.
Stable barge rates suggest freight costs are no longer climbing, which limits further basis pressure at river elevators. Rates remain elevated compared with early September, so basis stays weak near the river.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.