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USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says NOAA's spring flood outlook is much drier than normal for the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Antecedent drought and a snowless winter in key upper Mississippi watersheds raise the risk of low flows this summer and autumn, which could disrupt fertilizer and grain shipments.
Low river flows would restrict barge capacity for both northbound fertilizer and southbound grain, raising freight costs and pressuring the basis for feed grains.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.