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NOAA's spring outlook projects little chance of major Mississippi flooding because of a hot, dry winter shaped by a strong El Niño. Drought in the Great Plains is expected to persist or expand, which could cut river levels and force barge companies to reduce loads again this year.
Reduced barge loads raise freight costs for grain and fertilizer, which widens basis and increases delivered costs for feed buyers, and the risk grows if drought lingers into the autumn.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.