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A Risk Analysis paper by Zhenhua Chen and co-authors examines how low Mississippi River water levels, lock damage and import disruptions affected fertilizer and other supply chains. It reports that barge rates surged 400% during the 2022-2023 drought.
The authors combined an empirical analysis with a general equilibrium model to estimate effects on the US and Upper Mississippi economies.
Low water raises barge freight costs and cuts loads, which widens basis and raises delivered fertilizer costs for Midwest buyers. Freight-driven costs tend to persist when river drought recurs.
knowlton.osu.eduJul 14, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
