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An University of Arkansas economist says low Mississippi River levels at harvest could push basis more than $1 under futures, versus the typical 30 to 35 cents over in the Delta. He also reports that China has not bought new-crop soybeans, and that weak demand has added to lower basis this season.
Lower basis and higher barge costs cut farmer returns and shift grain flows, while the absence of Chinese new-crop purchases reduces export demand for soybeans.
brownfieldagnews.comCarah HartAug 27, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
