
Low Mississippi water levels at Memphis reached about -4.45 feet on September 13, and NOAA forecast a drop to the -8 foot low threshold by October 1. Coast Guard restrictions took effect on September 19, limiting barges to 10-foot drafts and six barges wide between Cairo and Lake Providence.
Restrictions are looser to the south, with drafts of 10'6" toward the Gulf.
Barge capacity cuts raise shipping costs for grain and fertilizer moving to export terminals. The forecast deepening drought adds upside pressure on barge freight rates.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.