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A long-range forecast of wetter weather may ease low water on the Lower Mississippi. The Lower Mississippi River Committee has asked the Coast Guard to raise southbound drafts to 11'6" from Cairo to the Gulf, and Memphis gauge readings are above their earlier lows.
Higher allowable drafts and improving river levels would cut barge costs and ease transport bottlenecks, which tends to narrow basis and reduce freight premiums.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.