
U.S. Class I railroads originated 30,610 grain carloads for the week ending May 2, up 3% from the prior week and 17% above last year. Barged grain movements fell 10% to 635,575 tons for the week ending May 9.
Diesel was priced at $5.639 per gallon on May 18, more than $2.16 above last year.
Weaker barge movement and high diesel costs raise freight expenses for grain moving to export positions. Strong rail and ocean demand supports freight rates even as river volumes slow.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.