
Highly pathogenic avian influenza continues to kill birds across western US states, with a backyard flock in Montana and a large commercial flock in Washington affected in December. The 2022 variant has affected over 56 million birds in 47 states, and California lost 685,000 birds by mid-November.
Ongoing losses in commercial flocks reduce US poultry supply and feed demand, supporting egg and chicken prices while weighing on corn and meal demand. The cumulative national toll keeps this a meaningful driver.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.