
Indonesia's Trade Minister issued Regulation No.1040/2023, cutting the crude palm oil export duty from 18 USD/MT to zero and reducing the plantation fund levy from 85 to 65 USD/tonne. The changes took effect 16 June 2023 and were later extended.
Removing the export duty makes Indonesian palm oil cheaper to export, which can add supply to global vegetable oil markets and pressure prices. The effect is a bearish signal for palm oil and competing vegetable oils.
After 399 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.